Anticipation in Disaster Management
p. 82-91
Abstract
Planning for regional security and crisis management is identified as a multi layered system suitable for anticipatory modelling and simulation. Delays and inter level dependencies, however, have manifested themselves as dominant properties of such systems. This means that an action on one level will cause surprising impacts on the others, but first after some retardation. Fortunately, with help of anticipatory modelling and computer simulation it is possible to demonstrate the effects of those complex inter level interactions in a simulation model before a decision is realised and action is taken.
Text
References
Bibliographical reference
Stig C Holmberg and Ulrica Lofstedt, « Anticipation in Disaster Management », CASYS, 25 | 2010, 82-91.
Electronic reference
Stig C Holmberg and Ulrica Lofstedt, « Anticipation in Disaster Management », CASYS [Online], 25 | 2010, Online since 11 September 2024, connection on 20 September 2024. URL : http://popups.lib.uliege.be/1373-5411/index.php?id=3184
Authors
Stig C Holmberg
Mid Sweden University, 831 25 Ostersund, Sweden
Ulrica Lofstedt
Mid Sweden University, 831 25 Ostersund, Sweden