http://popups.lib.uliege.be/1373-5411/index.php?id=2898 Publications of Auteurs Khalid Aboura fr 0 http://popups.lib.uliege.be/1373-5411/index.php?id=4650 Controversy over the Bayesian approach has diminished and one can't but admire the elegance of the definition of subjective probability. But it is still a hard sell in practice. This is a fact gathered through engineering experience. When the effect of the prior washes off quickly, the issue is irrelevant and one enjoys the probabilistic updating algorithm. When there is little data, one seriously questions the validity of the Bayesian approach. Very little has been achieved in developing means to support the existence of a prior, assess it and calibrate the person providing the opinion. We review the theory and show a case in bridge maintenance where the likelihood of the expert can be assessed. We state the reason for its inapplicability, take a step back to the days of Kolmogorov and reflect on Bayesian theory. Mon, 14 Oct 2024 15:48:06 +0200 Mon, 14 Oct 2024 15:48:15 +0200 http://popups.lib.uliege.be/1373-5411/index.php?id=4650 http://popups.lib.uliege.be/1373-5411/index.php?id=3955 The gamma process is a stochastic process with independent non-negative increments having gamma distributions. It is an infinite collection of probability distributions, correlated in a manner suitable for modeling gradual wear and degradation over time. Degradation generally consist of cumulative amounts of deterioration and the advantage of the gamma process is recognized by Jan M. van Noortwijk in the 1990's and applied in many structural studies. We introduce a novel stochastic process we call a delayed gamma process, designed for the estimation of infrastructure lifetime. An overview of the development of the model is given and the methods for estimation are reviewed. Tue, 01 Oct 2024 16:39:40 +0200 Tue, 01 Oct 2024 16:39:53 +0200 http://popups.lib.uliege.be/1373-5411/index.php?id=3955 http://popups.lib.uliege.be/1373-5411/index.php?id=2895 While the notion of chance may have been inherent in us from the beginning of the thinking age, it is a gambler's dispute in the 17th century that led to the creation by two famous French mathematicians of one of the most powerful mathematical theories, the theory of probability. It has since helped solve countless problems. In engineering, it is not the existence of uncertainty that is disputed, but how to deal with it. Probabilistic thinking becomes cumbersome when too many sources of variability exist. Engineers and physicists resort to "Black Box" models using data algorithmic approaches. Such is the case in some classification problems brought out by pattern recognition. We look at a character recognition problem, and present a probabilistic solution that is simple and easy to implement. Tue, 03 Sep 2024 15:44:26 +0200 Tue, 03 Sep 2024 15:44:35 +0200 http://popups.lib.uliege.be/1373-5411/index.php?id=2895