Anticipatory Systems and Sustainable Development : Modelling the Genesis and Management of Banded Vegetation Patterns in Niger

Sustainable development, creating no handicap for future generations, requires an anticipatory synchronisation of its different population and economic aspects. Population responses to environmental pressures may be oriented in three main directions : work intensification, migration, and family size limitation. All three of them may be considered as anticipatory strategies. Many semiarid wooded areas present vegetation bands which have been recently modelled. This model can be used for anticipatory management allowing a sustainable production of firewood. Coherent forestry policy, like other economic policies, should induce population changes compatible with the available resources.