Anticipation in Disaster Management

Planning for regional security and crisis management is identified as a multi layered system suitable for anticipatory modelling and simulation. Delays and inter level dependencies, however, have manifested themselves as dominant properties of such systems. This means that an action on one level will cause surprising impacts on the others, but first after some retardation. Fortunately, with help of anticipatory modelling and computer simulation it is possible to demonstrate the effects of those complex inter level interactions in a simulation model before a decision is realised and action is taken.