Forecast of Fluctuating Large-Scale Natural Processes and Macroscopic Correlations Effect

p. 31-46

Résumé

The macroscopic correlations effect appears as a correlation in any dissipative processes without the local carriers of interaction. In fluctuating processes there are both retarded and advanced correlations. The possibility of long-term forecasting of the random component of solar and geomagnetic activity on these advanced correlations has been investigated. The forecasting algorithm, employing advanced correlations, is suggested. Its efficiency has been proved on data of the long-term experiments in regime of the real forecast imitation with advancement up to four months. The accuracy of the obtained solar and geomagnetic forecasts is acceptable for all the practical purposes.

Texte

Version Fac-similé [PDF, 6.2M]

Citer cet article

Référence papier

S.M. Korotaev et V.O. Serdyuk, « Forecast of Fluctuating Large-Scale Natural Processes and Macroscopic Correlations Effect », CASYS, 20 | 2008, 31-46.

Référence électronique

S.M. Korotaev et V.O. Serdyuk, « Forecast of Fluctuating Large-Scale Natural Processes and Macroscopic Correlations Effect », CASYS [En ligne], 20 | 2008, mis en ligne le 03 September 2024, consulté le 20 September 2024. URL : http://popups.lib.uliege.be/1373-5411/index.php?id=2814

Auteurs

S.M. Korotaev

Geoelectromagnetic Research Center of Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences(GMRC, Post Box 30, Troitsk, Moscow Region, 142190 Russia)

V.O. Serdyuk

Geoelectromagnetic Research Center of Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences(GMRC, Post Box 30, Troitsk, Moscow Region, 142190 Russia)

Droits d'auteur

CC BY-SA 4.0 Deed