Forecasting and Backcasting to Manage the Changes : an Anticipatory View
p. 29-42
Résumé
When the current performances of a social system are reckoned as unsatisfactory and not complying with its expected evolution or if their trends appear to result in an unsustainable future, the problem consists in defining a change for reaching a better behaviour. Significant changes in the evolution are possibly obtained by discontinuities, which may be concerned with drastic changes in the policy and/or in the system structure.
This paper introduces the paradigm of managing the changes by discontinuities, which we can identify and treat by computer simulation according to a heuristic approach, which involves forecasting, backcasting and optimization tools. Finally, such an approach is discussed from an anticipatory point of view.
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Référence papier
Nicola P. Bianchi et Giuseppe Soncin, « Forecasting and Backcasting to Manage the Changes : an Anticipatory View », CASYS, 11 | 2002, 29-42 .
Référence électronique
Nicola P. Bianchi et Giuseppe Soncin, « Forecasting and Backcasting to Manage the Changes : an Anticipatory View », CASYS [En ligne], 11 | 2002, mis en ligne le 08 July 2024, consulté le 20 September 2024. URL : http://popups.lib.uliege.be/1373-5411/index.php?id=1220
Auteurs
Nicola P. Bianchi
National Research Council (CNR), Institute for Intelligent Systems in Automation (ISSIA) - Via De Marini 6, 16149 - Genoa, Italy
Giuseppe Soncin
National Research Council (CNR), Institute for Intelligent Systems in Automation (ISSIA) - Via De Marini 6, 16149 - Genoa, Italy