Forecasting and Backcasting to Manage the Changes : an Anticipatory View

When the current performances of a social system are reckoned as unsatisfactory and not complying with its expected evolution or if their trends appear to result in an unsustainable future, the problem consists in defining a change for reaching a better behaviour. Significant changes in the evolution are possibly obtained by discontinuities, which may be concerned with drastic changes in the policy and/or in the system structure.

This paper introduces the paradigm of managing the changes by discontinuities, which we can identify and treat by computer simulation according to a heuristic approach, which involves forecasting, backcasting and optimization tools. Finally, such an approach is discussed from an anticipatory point of view.